Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4671 at 12:46, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4671 Southwest	MDW 12:46	RIC 15:49	7%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 12:32 → RIC 14:15DL 3152	7h 15m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → RIC 16:05DL 3073	5h 48m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 18:33 → RIC 20:16DL 1263	6h 35m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348	6h 48m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON