Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2246 at 08:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2246 Southwest	MDW 08:01	ROC 10:45	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2220 Southwest	MDW 18:51	ROC 21:35	27%	5%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Rochester is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → ROC 17:20DL 2047	5h 15m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → ROC 15:48DL 5211 · flown by Endeavor	5h 31m	98%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON