tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 09:54, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor 3h 40m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877 9h 06m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 10h 50m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472 10h 00m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 17:50 → SEA 20:11DL 714 9h 30m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor 3h 22m Minneapolis MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881 8h 59m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor 54m Detroit DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728 7h 12m 83% 70%
DeltaDetails → MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 1h 02m Detroit DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944 7h 16m 81% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON