Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4367 at 09:46, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4367 Southwest	MDW 09:46	SFO 12:16	22%	8%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	3h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	9h 18m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:57DL 495	10h 52m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	3h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 18:50 → SFO 20:57DL 2809	9h 08m	94%	72%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 19:34 → SFO 21:27DL 681	10h 46m	99%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON