Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2990 at 09:51, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2990 Southwest	MDW 09:51	SJC 12:25	9%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136	9h 47m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	46m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	7h 30m	93%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	2h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 18:30 → SJC 20:35DL 2087	8h 46m	91%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON