Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2995 at 08:11 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2995 Southwest	MDW 08:11	SRQ 11:52	7%	2%	1.1%	no record
WN 2996 Southwest	MDW 18:41	SRQ 22:23	20%	5%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	4h 44m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109	5h 12m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	53m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057	4h 42m	91%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON