Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1666 MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1681 MEM 18:04 → ATL 20:34 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1666 Delta Flight history →	MEM 05:15	ATL 07:34	4%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 1624 Delta Flight history →	MEM 06:20	ATL 08:44	4%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 2071 Delta Flight history →	MEM 10:36	ATL 12:54	5%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 1149 Delta Flight history →	MEM 09:27	ATL 11:46	5%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 82 Delta Flight history →	MEM 11:46	ATL 14:16	5%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 733 Delta	MEM 15:11	ATL 17:41	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2778 Delta Flight history →	MEM 13:37	ATL 16:02	8%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 1700 Delta Flight history →	MEM 16:21	ATL 18:51	8%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 1681 Delta Flight history →	MEM 18:04	ATL 20:34	10%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 5247 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MEM 08:27	ATL 10:51	12%	4%	0.0%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON