Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 4088 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MEM 06:45	AUS 08:37	7%	4%	0.7%	89%
WN 2749 Southwest	MEM 11:51	AUS 13:42	10%	2%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	7h 10m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	1h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 10:10 → AUS 12:50DL 2062	6h 50m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104	7h 34m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 07:15 → SLC 09:33DL 2290	1h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest	7h 35m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397	6h 23m	99%	85%
United Details →	MEM 07:25 → ORD 09:30UA 247	2h 17m Chicago	ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061	7h 16m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	MEM 10:36 → ATL 12:54DL 2071	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491	6h 43m	99%	83%
American Details →	MEM 05:38 → DFW 07:20AA 1940	1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:37 → AUS 09:49AA 794	4h 11m	96%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON