Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3012 at 08:21, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3012 Southwest	MEM 08:21	BNA 09:30	4%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155	4h 54m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	5h 10m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002	5h 23m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142	5h 59m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 08:27 → ATL 10:51DL 5247 · flown by Endeavor	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159	5h 36m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MEM 10:36 → ATL 12:54DL 2071	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 14:26 → BNA 14:38DL 790	4h 02m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370	2h 58m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557	6h 31m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 13:37 → ATL 16:02DL 2778	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490	5h 15m	98%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON