Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 5604 at 06:00, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5604 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 06:00	BOS 10:01	11%	3%	0.8%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	56m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → BOS 11:06DL 2432	4h 51m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	5h 25m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	1h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655	6h 51m	98%	85%
American Details →	MEM 05:38 → DFW 07:20AA 1940	1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:50 → BOS 13:37AA 1206	6h 59m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	MEM 13:37 → ATL 16:02DL 2778	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 19:57 → BOS 22:35DL 457	7h 58m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MEM 11:46 → ATL 14:16DL 82	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 18:15 → BOS 21:00DL 821	8h 14m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	MEM 12:09 → MSP 14:22DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	3h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → BOS 22:01DL 1502	8h 52m	99%	78%
American Details →	MEM 06:53 → CLT 09:50AA 978	2h 49m Charlotte	CLT 12:39 → BOS 15:02AA 1140	7h 09m	99%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MEM 11:16 → LGA 15:08DL 4903 · flown by Endeavor	52m New York	LGA 16:00 → BOS 17:37DL 5819 · flown by Republic	5h 21m	70%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON