Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1417 at 14:36, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1417 Southwest	MEM 14:36	BWI 18:00	14%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47DL 801	4h 32m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	5h 41m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799	5h 26m	99%	86%
American Details →	MEM 06:53 → CLT 09:50AA 978	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 12:27 → BWI 14:10AA 2733	6h 17m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 11:46 → ATL 14:16DL 82	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → BWI 20:04DL 2928	7h 18m	100%	83%
United Details →	MEM 09:00 → IAH 10:53UA 4003 · flown by Mesa	1h 23m Houston	IAH 12:16 → BWI 16:30UA 1720	6h 30m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370	48m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546	4h 15m	91%	82%
Delta Details →	MEM 10:36 → ATL 12:54DL 2071	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267	5h 39m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON