Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 978 at 06:53 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 978 MEM 06:53 → CLT 09:50 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest OH 5398 MEM 17:54 → CLT 20:41 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 978 American Flight history →	MEM 06:53	CLT 09:50	9%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 1846 American Flight history →	MEM 08:12	CLT 11:04	10%	4%	0.8%	88%
AA 1790 American Flight history →	MEM 12:05	CLT 14:56	15%	4%	0.8%	95%
AA 1636 American	MEM 15:16	CLT 18:10	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
OH 5398 PSA	MEM 17:54	CLT 20:41	22%	7%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON