Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2860 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 2860 MEM 06:11 → DEN 07:44 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4625 MEM 16:32 → DEN 18:11 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2860 Southwest	MEM 06:11	DEN 07:44	4%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 526 United	MEM 08:44	DEN 10:18	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1347 United	MEM 16:20	DEN 18:16	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3016 Southwest	MEM 14:51	DEN 16:21	19%	4%	0.5%	no record
F9 4625 Frontier Flight history →	MEM 16:32	DEN 18:11	26%	6%	0.8%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON