Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1940 at 05:38 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 1940 MEM 05:38 → DFW 07:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1929 MEM 17:35 → DFW 19:18 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1940 American Flight history →	MEM 05:38	DFW 07:20	7%	3%	1.0%	89%
AA 1825 American Flight history →	MEM 07:13	DFW 09:14	9%	4%	1.0%	85%
MQ 3346 Envoy	MEM 07:11	DFW 09:01	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3528 Envoy	MEM 09:30	DFW 11:05	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 3932 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MEM 19:56	DFW 21:42	16%	5%	0.8%	80%
AA 3888 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MEM 14:43	DFW 16:18	17%	4%	0.8%	75%
AA 1086 American Flight history →	MEM 12:06	DFW 13:53	17%	7%	0.9%	71%
AA 1929 American	MEM 17:35	DFW 19:18	26%	8%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON