Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2370 Delta Flight history →	MEM 06:32	DTW 09:27	6%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 1627 Delta	MEM 10:30	DTW 13:27	10%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 41m	99%	88%
United Details →	MEM 09:00 → IAH 10:53UA 4003 · flown by Mesa	3h 05m Houston	IAH 13:58 → DTW 17:59UA 6131 · flown by Mesa	7h 59m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 08:27 → ATL 10:51DL 5247 · flown by Endeavor	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031	6h 15m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 12:09 → MSP 14:22DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	1h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	5h 50m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 11:46 → ATL 14:16DL 82	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	7h 27m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	7h 00m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	46m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	4h 42m	90%	83%
American Details →	MEM 06:53 → CLT 09:50AA 978	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 12:27 → DTW 14:19AA 1683	6h 26m	99%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MEM 12:05 → CLT 14:56AA 1790	46m Charlotte	CLT 15:42 → DTW 17:34AA 1134	4h 29m	69%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON