Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: UA 3642 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 3642 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 06:00	EWR 09:43	5%	2%	2.1%	95%
YX 3613 Republic	MEM 16:19	EWR 20:21	30%	10%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	6h 06m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 09:14 → EWR 12:56DL 2895	5h 56m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370	48m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577	4h 24m	91%	80%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:02 → EWR 13:15DL 8883	5h 55m	98%	78%
United Details →	MEM 07:25 → ORD 09:30UA 247	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 12:11 → EWR 15:39UA 606	7h 14m	97%	76%
American Details →	MEM 06:53 → CLT 09:50AA 978	53m Charlotte	CLT 10:43 → EWR 12:41AA 1697	4h 48m	89%	75%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322	4h 57m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	MEM 08:27 → ATL 10:51DL 5247 · flown by Endeavor	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	4h 49m	94%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON