Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3017 at 05:46 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3017 Southwest	MEM 05:46	HOU 07:32	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2925 Southwest	MEM 12:41	HOU 14:27	14%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	4h 30m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	5h 50m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 55m	99%	86%
American Details →	MEM 14:43 → DFW 16:18AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:31 → HOU 19:48AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	5h 05m	94%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON