Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2052 MEM 08:59 → IAH 10:52 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5798 MEM 15:23 → IAH 17:25 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2052 United	MEM 08:59	IAH 10:52	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
OO 5285 SkyWest	MEM 11:34	IAH 13:26	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 5798 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MEM 15:23	IAH 17:25	13%	5%	0.6%	71%
UA 4003 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	MEM 09:00	IAH 10:54	8%	4%	0.6%	92%
UA 6250 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	MEM 18:53	IAH 20:49	21%	7%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON