Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2779 at 10:51, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2779 Southwest	MEM 10:51	LAS 12:28	11%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → ATL 08:28DL 1666	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	7h 00m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238	8h 26m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MEM 07:12 → ATL 09:40DL 1624	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	6h 50m	98%	88%
United Details →	MEM 06:44 → IAH 08:37UA 6207 · flown by Mesa	3h 18m Houston	IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524	8h 29m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:04 → DTW 09:00DL 2370	3h 15m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421	9h 24m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MEM 11:46 → ATL 14:15DL 82	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 15:54 → LAS 17:09DL 659	7h 23m	99%	86%
United Details →	MEM 07:25 → ORD 09:30UA 247	1h 22m Chicago	ORD 10:52 → LAS 12:46UA 1803	7h 21m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	MEM 13:37 → ATL 16:02DL 2778	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → LAS 19:39DL 919	8h 02m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON