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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:12, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 07:12 → ATL 09:40DL 1624 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 9h 00m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 9h 23m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 8h 50m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:04 → DTW 09:00DL 2370 3h 50m Detroit DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634 10h 31m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → ATL 08:28DL 1666 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501 7h 55m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MEM 10:36 → ATL 12:54DL 2071 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 15:40 → LAX 17:25DL 301 8h 49m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:11 → PHL 09:46AA 5409 · flown by PSA 3h 18m Philadelphia PHL 13:04 → LAX 15:46AA 2944 11h 35m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → MEM 06:44 → IAH 08:37UA 6207 · flown by Mesa 1h 49m Houston IAH 10:26 → LAX 12:09UA 469 7h 25m 97% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON