Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4564 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 4564 MEM 06:00 → LGA 09:48 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest YX 5605 MEM 16:59 → LGA 20:59 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4564 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 06:00	LGA 09:48	7%	2%	2.7%	87%
DL 5607 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 07:05	LGA 11:07	10%	3%	2.1%	81%
AA 4807 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 14:31	LGA 18:31	25%	8%	1.5%	66%
YX 5605 Republic	MEM 16:59	LGA 20:59	26%	10%	1.5%	no record
DL 4903 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MEM 11:16	LGA 15:07	25%	8%	7.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON