tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3020 at 05:21 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3020 Southwest MEM 05:21 MDW 07:08 5% 2% 0.8% no record
WN 2750 Southwest MEM 16:11 MDW 17:59 17% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417 6h 41m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728 6h 48m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370 2h 58m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 6h 14m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor 7h 09m 98% 58%
DeltaDetails → MEM 12:09 → MSP 14:22DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest 2h 16m Minneapolis MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor 6h 08m 98% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON