Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 1340 at 05:34, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1340 American Flight history →	MEM 05:34	MIA 09:03	8%	4%	1.4%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	4h 42m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 42m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	51m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → MIA 13:37DL 793	6h 37m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	6h 18m	98%	79%
American Details →	MEM 06:53 → CLT 09:50AA 978	1h 12m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	5h 18m	92%	78%
American Details →	MEM 05:38 → DFW 07:20AA 1940	1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:55 → MIA 12:55AA 1219	6h 17m	96%	77%
American Details →	MEM 08:12 → CLT 11:04AA 1846	2h 25m Charlotte	CLT 13:29 → MIA 15:36AA 1198	6h 24m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323	5h 04m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MEM 14:31 → LGA 18:31AA 4807 · flown by Republic	59m New York	LGA 19:30 → MIA 22:31AA 845	7h 00m	75%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON