Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3758 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 3758 MEM 06:36 → ORD 08:45 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 5780 MEM 14:22 → ORD 16:29 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3758 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MEM 06:36	ORD 08:45	11%	3%	2.0%	89%
UA 247 United Flight history →	MEM 07:25	ORD 09:30	13%	4%	1.4%	85%
UA 5672 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MEM 09:46	ORD 11:57	16%	6%	1.2%	83%
AA 3959 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MEM 10:35	ORD 12:31	18%	5%	2.0%	98%worse than usual
AA 4651 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 17:33	ORD 19:37	25%	9%	2.7%	78%
UA 5336 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MEM 18:35	ORD 20:40	29%	10%	1.4%	34%
UA 5780 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MEM 14:22	ORD 16:29	30%	12%	1.5%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON