Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5409 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MEM 06:12	PHL 09:47	7%	4%	2.0%	98%
AA 5040 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MEM 12:50	PHL 16:25	15%	6%	1.6%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270	4h 42m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	2h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679	7h 43m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:32 → PHL 13:43DL 8885	6h 23m	99%	88%
American Details →	MEM 05:38 → DFW 07:20AA 1940	1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:29 → PHL 13:00AA 2255	6h 22m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:33DL 1174	5h 12m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	MEM 08:27 → ATL 10:51DL 5247 · flown by Endeavor	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	6h 37m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MEM 13:37 → ATL 16:02DL 2778	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	6h 43m	99%	80%
American Details →	MEM 06:53 → CLT 09:50AA 978	3h 12m Charlotte	CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573	6h 57m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON