Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 652 at 09:51, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 652 Southwest	MEM 09:51	PHX 11:19	6%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	6h 43m	97%	87%
American Details →	MEM 05:38 → DFW 07:20AA 1940	3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:20 → PHX 11:06AA 2905	7h 28m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 07:15 → SLC 09:33DL 2290	1h 57m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431	6h 57m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	8h 48m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370	3h 20m Detroit	DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813	9h 18m	98%	84%
American Details →	MEM 08:12 → CLT 11:04AA 1846	3h 40m Charlotte	CLT 14:44 → PHX 16:16AA 1711	10h 04m	100%	83%
American Details →	MEM 06:53 → CLT 09:50AA 978	1h 47m Charlotte	CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588	8h 03m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366	6h 51m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON