Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2185 United Flight history →	MFR 05:00	DEN 08:33	7%	5%	0.6%	92%
UA 1412 United Flight history →	MFR 13:10	DEN 16:43	12%	6%	0.6%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Medford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest	2h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:15 → DEN 11:47DL 1553	5h 32m	98%	87%
Alaska Details →	MFR 05:15 → PDX 06:14AS 2098 · flown by Horizon	47m Portland	PDX 07:01 → DEN 10:31AS 684	4h 16m	88%	75%
American Details →	MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest	49m Phoenix	PHX 08:31 → DEN 11:32AA 2602	5h 17m	81%	69%
Alaska Details →	MFR 10:31 → SEA 11:53AS 2114 · flown by Horizon	2h 29m Seattle	SEA 14:22 → DEN 17:55AS 602	6h 24m	100%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754	51m San Francisco	SFO 16:26 → DEN 20:08UA 1835	4h 57m	56%	42%
Alaska Details →	MFR 10:31 → SEA 11:53AS 2114 · flown by Horizon	51m Seattle	SEA 12:44 → DEN 16:17AS 304	4h 46m	44%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON