tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 3124 at 16:28, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3124 SkyWest MFR 16:28 LAX 18:34 11% 6% 0.7% no record
AS 2329 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record MFR 16:34 LAX 18:35 21% 10% 0.0% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest 3h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 7h 12m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Phoenix PHX 10:57 → LAX 12:35AA 2027 7h 20m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest 2h 13m Seattle SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769 6h 40m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185 1h 29m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 34m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 2h 22m San Francisco SFO 17:57 → LAX 19:37UA 2282 5h 26m 98% 76%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:15 → PDX 06:14AS 2098 · flown by Horizon 46m Portland PDX 07:00 → LAX 09:37AS 581 4h 22m 87% 75%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:58 → SEA 07:20AS 2452 · flown by Horizon 2h 35m Seattle SEA 09:55 → LAX 12:27AS 1306 6h 29m 100% 75%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 10:31 → SEA 11:53AS 2114 · flown by Horizon 1h 45m Seattle SEA 13:38 → LAX 16:25AS 696 5h 54m 96% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 50m San Francisco SFO 16:25 → LAX 18:05UA 1754 3h 54m 55% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON