Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 6401 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MFR 05:15	PHX 07:42	8%	6%	0.7%	94%
OO 6240 SkyWest	MFR 13:32	PHX 16:03	13%	7%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest	3h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431	6h 57m	99%	87%
United Details →	MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185	1h 17m Denver	DEN 09:50 → PHX 10:55UA 1782	5h 55m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest	3h 53m Seattle	SEA 11:45 → PHX 14:59DL 2449	8h 44m	99%	81%
United Details →	MFR 13:10 → DEN 16:43UA 1412	1h 47m Denver	DEN 18:30 → PHX 19:30UA 1507	6h 20m	96%	76%
Alaska Details →	MFR 05:15 → PDX 06:14AS 2098 · flown by Horizon	46m Portland	PDX 07:00 → PHX 09:49AS 1349	4h 34m	87%	75%
Alaska Details →	MFR 10:31 → SEA 11:53AS 2114 · flown by Horizon	1h 51m Seattle	SEA 13:44 → PHX 16:45AS 700	6h 14m	96%	70%
Alaska Details →	MFR 05:58 → SEA 07:20AS 2452 · flown by Horizon	2h 29m Seattle	SEA 09:49 → PHX 12:36AS 449	6h 38m	100%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754	50m San Francisco	SFO 16:25 → PHX 18:39UA 574	4h 28m	55%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON