tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 3249 at 07:04, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 3249 SkyWest MFR 07:04 SAN 09:20 16% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 6h 53m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → SAN 12:25AA 2122 7h 10m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest 1h 53m Seattle SEA 09:45 → SAN 12:39DL 2533 6h 24m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185 2h 42m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 7h 41m 97% 74%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:15 → PDX 06:14AS 2098 · flown by Horizon 2h 58m Portland PDX 09:12 → SAN 11:40AS 721 6h 25m 100% 74%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 10:31 → SEA 11:53AS 2114 · flown by Horizon 2h 24m Seattle SEA 14:17 → SAN 16:57AS 765 6h 26m 100% 66%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:58 → SEA 07:20AS 2452 · flown by Horizon 1h 16m Seattle SEA 08:36 → SAN 11:16AS 650 5h 18m 99% 65%
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 1h 12m San Francisco SFO 16:47 → SAN 18:39UA 1561 4h 28m 76% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON