Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1050 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1050 United	MFR 06:00	SFO 07:30	7%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1754 United Flight history →	MFR 14:11	SFO 15:35	36%	18%	0.7%	47%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest	2h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	6h 48m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	MFR 05:15 → PDX 06:14AS 2098 · flown by Horizon	1h 05m Portland	PDX 07:19 → SFO 09:16AS 526	4h 01m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest	1h 53m Seattle	SEA 09:45 → SFO 12:04DL 1412	5h 49m	98%	69%
United Details →	MFR 13:10 → DEN 16:43UA 1412	1h 11m Denver	DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007	6h 30m	92%	69%
United Details →	MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185	1h 10m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	6h 25m	94%	66%
American Details →	MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest	3h 11m Phoenix	PHX 10:53 → SFO 12:58AA 3199	7h 43m	96%	66%
Alaska Details →	MFR 05:58 → SEA 07:20AS 2452 · flown by Horizon	1h 33m Seattle	SEA 08:53 → SFO 11:09AS 528	5h 11m	99%	56%
Alaska Details →	MFR 19:35 → PDX 20:34AS 2107 · flown by Horizon	1h 11m Portland	PDX 21:45 → SFO 23:36AS 2112 · flown by Horizon	4h 01m	91%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON