Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3769 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MFR 05:15	SLC 08:08	4%	4%	0.6%	94%
OO 3865 SkyWest	MFR 13:29	SLC 16:27	8%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h ahead of Medford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest	2h 26m Phoenix	PHX 10:08 → SLC 12:55AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest	6h 40m	95%	86%
United Details →	MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185	3h 07m Denver	DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963	7h 13m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest	1h 38m Seattle	SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016	5h 21m	98%	83%
Alaska Details →	MFR 15:52 → PDX 16:50AS 2081 · flown by Horizon	50m Portland	PDX 17:40 → SLC 20:41AS 3291 · flown by SkyWest	3h 49m	80%	71%
Alaska Details →	MFR 05:58 → SEA 07:20AS 2452 · flown by Horizon	1h 48m Seattle	SEA 09:08 → SLC 12:03AS 661	5h 05m	100%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON