Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5182 MHT 07:07 → CLT 09:19 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5120 MHT 16:45 → CLT 19:01 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5182 PSA	MHT 07:07	CLT 09:19	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 5661 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MHT 11:08	CLT 13:21	9%	3%	0.7%	88%
OH 5120 PSA	MHT 16:45	CLT 19:01	15%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON