tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3027 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3027 Southwest MHT 06:21 MCO 09:24 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 3028 Southwest MHT 15:41 MCO 18:37 24% 7% 1.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MHT 06:00 → DCA 07:55AA 5160 · flown by PSA 3h 06m Washington DCA 11:01 → MCO 13:33AA 1153 7h 33m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → MHT 09:25 → IAD 11:19UA 4857 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 16m Dulles IAD 12:35 → MCO 14:58UA 2206 5h 33m 93% 79%
AmericanDetails → MHT 07:35 → PHL 09:14AA 6001 · flown by Piedmont 3h 33m Philadelphia PHL 12:47 → MCO 15:18AA 3153 7h 43m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → MHT 07:14 → ORD 09:10AA 4150 · flown by Envoy 1h 28m Chicago ORD 10:38 → MCO 14:21AA 3293 7h 07m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → MHT 10:32 → PHL 12:09AA 5976 · flown by Piedmont 2h 11m Philadelphia PHL 14:20 → MCO 17:08AA 2502 6h 36m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → MHT 11:09 → CLT 13:22AA 5661 · flown by PSA 3h 19m Charlotte CLT 16:41 → MCO 18:25AA 1682 7h 16m 100% 69%
AmericanDetails → MHT 14:54 → PHL 16:35AA 5840 · flown by Piedmont 3h 30m Philadelphia PHL 20:05 → MCO 22:36AA 1673 7h 42m 97% 66%
AmericanDetails → MHT 12:10 → ORD 13:44AA 3921 · flown by Envoy 1h 24m Chicago ORD 15:08 → MCO 18:50AA 1247 6h 40m 91% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MHT 14:37 → IAD 16:35UA 4925 · flown by CommuteAir 47m Dulles IAD 17:22 → MCO 19:45UA 2463 5h 08m 65% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON