Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4150 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 4150 MHT 07:14 → ORD 09:10 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3720 MHT 18:03 → ORD 19:40 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4150 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MHT 07:14	ORD 09:10	11%	4%	1.4%	91%
AA 3921 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MHT 12:10	ORD 13:44	27%	8%	1.4%	80%
AA 3720 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MHT 18:03	ORD 19:40	31%	10%	1.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON