Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1249 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 1249 MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1045 MIA 20:04 → ATL 22:09 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1249 Delta Flight history →	MIA 06:00	ATL 08:01	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 1211 Delta Flight history →	MIA 07:10	ATL 09:10	7%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 1261 Delta Flight history →	MIA 08:20	ATL 10:20	8%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 2836 Delta Flight history →	MIA 10:40	ATL 12:48	15%	4%	0.7%	85%
AA 1046 American Flight history →	MIA 08:12	ATL 10:17	16%	6%	0.7%	80%
F9 2483 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 05:27	ATL 07:35	19%	6%	0.9%	82%
DL 1510 Delta Flight history →	MIA 12:02	ATL 14:05	20%	5%	0.7%	82%
DL 1332 Delta Flight history →	MIA 14:09	ATL 16:13	21%	5%	0.7%	75%
DL 719 Delta	MIA 19:47	ATL 21:50	25%	8%	0.7%	no record
DL 1386 Delta Flight history →	MIA 18:00	ATL 20:14	25%	9%	0.8%	59%
DL 1323 Delta Flight history →	MIA 16:51	ATL 18:53	25%	7%	0.7%	59%
AA 1368 American Flight history →	MIA 15:49	ATL 17:51	34%	13%	0.7%	63%
F9 4405 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 17:28	ATL 20:00	35%	16%	1.0%	57%
AA 1045 American Flight history →	MIA 20:04	ATL 22:09	36%	14%	1.0%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON