Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 812 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 812 MIA 09:10 → AUS 11:20 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2629 MIA 19:40 → AUS 21:40 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 812 American Flight history →	MIA 09:10	AUS 11:20	16%	4%	0.8%	90%
MQ 4124 Envoy	MIA 13:49	AUS 15:54	23%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2324 American Flight history →	MIA 15:14	AUS 17:16	28%	9%	0.8%	59%
WN 3059 Southwest	MIA 13:01	AUS 14:59	29%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 2344 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:05	AUS 21:13	30%	9%	0.7%	68%
AA 2629 American Flight history →	MIA 19:40	AUS 21:40	31%	9%	1.0%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON