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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Asheville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 09:58 → AVL 11:07DL 3059 5h 07m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182 6h 02m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:40DL 3099 6h 20m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 16:11 → AVL 17:20DL 3101 6h 40m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 19:37 → AVL 20:41DL 3071 6h 32m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:00 → DCA 08:41AA 491 1h 25m Washington DCA 10:06 → AVL 11:37AA 5213 · flown by PSA 5h 37m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:59 → LGA 12:13AA 605 59m New York LGA 13:12 → AVL 15:18AA 4418 · flown by Republic 6h 19m 83% 67%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → EWR 11:54UA 408 1h 55m Newark EWR 13:49 → AVL 15:54UA 4430 · flown by GoJet 7h 06m 96% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 49m Atlanta ATL 17:02 → AVL 18:10DL 5121 · flown by Endeavor 4h 02m 71% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON