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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Hartford on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 10:22 → BDL 12:45DL 1082 6h 45m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739 7h 56m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004 3h 29m Charlotte CLT 12:04 → BDL 14:17AA 2741 7h 53m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:29 → DCA 09:08AA 491 3h 51m Washington DCA 12:59 → BDL 14:27AA 5059 · flown by PSA 7h 58m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 15:34 → BDL 17:59DL 2735 7h 19m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 17:52 → BDL 20:19DL 2504 8h 17m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 19:55 → BDL 22:23DL 2765 8h 14m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → MIA 12:30 → ORD 15:13UA 1983 3h 03m Chicago ORD 18:16 → BDL 21:32UA 1616 9h 02m 97% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:52DL 1323 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 19:55 → BDL 22:23DL 2765 5h 32m 68% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON