Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 3422 at 13:45, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3422 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 13:45	BHM 14:52	19%	3%	0.8%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	6h 10m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012	6h 04m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484	6h 42m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202	6h 49m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → BHM 17:55DL 1132	6h 53m	98%	86%
American Details →	MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227	1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:03 → BHM 14:58AA 3884 · flown by Envoy	6h 58m	96%	84%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:40 → BHM 11:33AA 5530 · flown by PSA	7h 08m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	50m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → BHM 09:57DL 3164	3h 47m	88%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON