Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 4123 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–39%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4123 MIA 08:15 → BNA 09:38 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4805 MIA 20:02 → BNA 21:25 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4123 Envoy	MIA 08:15	BNA 09:38	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 3033 Southwest	MIA 11:46	BNA 13:09	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 487 American	MIA 14:55	BNA 16:23	29%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 323 American Flight history →	MIA 16:18	BNA 17:47	31%	9%	0.8%	67%
WN 4805 Southwest	MIA 20:02	BNA 21:25	39%	11%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON