Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2226 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 2226 MIA 06:46 → BOS 10:11 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1074 MIA 18:20 → BOS 21:45 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2226 American	MIA 06:46	BOS 10:11	11%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 2134 American	MIA 10:26	BOS 13:52	21%	8%	0.8%	no record
DL 1399 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:30	BOS 14:59	25%	11%	0.8%	74%
AA 2411 American	MIA 12:32	BOS 16:08	30%	16%	0.8%	no record
AA 613 American	MIA 20:05	BOS 23:34	31%	13%	1.0%	no record
AA 2143 American	MIA 13:21	BOS 16:57	32%	14%	0.8%	no record
DL 1784 Delta	MIA 20:00	BOS 23:27	32%	14%	1.2%	no record
AA 1074 American Flight history →	MIA 18:20	BOS 21:45	39%	15%	0.9%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON