Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483	9h 55m	99%	82%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:17 → BUR 11:49AA 1208	9h 24m	99%	80%
United Details →	MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045	1h 15m Denver	DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154	8h 11m	94%	78%
United Details →	MIA 08:00 → SFO 11:03UA 1257	2h 47m San Francisco	SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626	10h 17m	99%	73%
American Details →	MIA 15:24 → DFW 17:36AA 1824	1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:54 → BUR 20:26AA 2597	8h 02m	83%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON