Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4703 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 4703 MIA 06:26 → BWI 09:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3216 MIA 21:12 → BWI 23:52 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4703 Southwest	MIA 06:26	BWI 09:10	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
F9 2940 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 07:26	BWI 10:29	12%	5%	1.2%	71%
WN 449 Southwest	MIA 12:31	BWI 15:22	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2104 American	MIA 15:50	BWI 18:39	24%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 3216 American Flight history →	MIA 21:12	BWI 23:52	26%	10%	1.1%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON