tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, MQ 3867 at 15:48, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MQ 3867 Envoy MIA 15:48 CHS 17:35 20% 4% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 10:46 → CHS 12:00DL 3107 6h 00m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → CHS 13:42DL 2179 6h 32m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → CHS 15:53DL 1381 5h 13m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004 3h 44m Charlotte CLT 12:19 → CHS 13:25AA 5222 · flown by PSA 7h 01m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 17:39 → CHS 18:54DL 3179 6h 52m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 19:27 → CHS 20:42DL 2493 6h 33m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38AA 2129 52m Philadelphia PHL 10:30 → CHS 12:29AA 2447 5h 44m 92% 77%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08AA 581 54m Chicago ORD 10:02 → CHS 13:38AA 2154 6h 58m 91% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 15:29 → LGA 18:45DL 1538 47m New York LGA 19:32 → CHS 22:02DL 4676 · flown by Endeavor 6h 28m 61% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON