tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 32% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
F9 4135 Frontier Flight history → MIA 16:08 CLE 19:15 32% 12% 1.1% 70%
AA 363 American Flight history → MIA 20:45 CLE 23:48 32% 13% 1.1% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978 5h 32m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → CLE 13:32DL 775 6h 22m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 13:36 → CLE 15:20DL 2545 7h 00m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004 2h 31m Charlotte CLT 11:06 → CLE 12:49AA 848 6h 25m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 16:51 → CLE 18:42DL 1350 6h 40m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 3h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:52 → CLE 14:40AA 2336 9h 15m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 19:55 → CLE 21:45DL 1339 7h 36m 97% 77%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:15 → PHL 12:10AA 551 3h 03m Philadelphia PHL 15:13 → CLE 16:44AA 5581 · flown by PSA 7h 29m 97% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 49m Detroit DTW 17:42 → CLE 18:46DL 4954 · flown by Endeavor 5h 08m 71% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON