Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3004 at 06:24 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 3004 MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 3700 MIA 18:51 → CLT 21:09 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3004 American Flight history →	MIA 06:24	CLT 08:35	8%	3%	0.7%	95%
AA 9603 American	MIA 08:28	CLT 10:39	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1965 American	MIA 08:48	CLT 11:00	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1398 American	MIA 09:51	CLT 12:03	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2297 American Flight history →	MIA 13:30	CLT 15:48	20%	7%	0.7%	78%
F9 3037 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 11:28	CLT 13:46	23%	8%	1.2%	72%
AA 985 American Flight history →	MIA 16:01	CLT 18:22	23%	9%	0.8%	66%
AA 1577 American Flight history →	MIA 19:03	CLT 21:08	27%	9%	0.8%	76%
AA 3194 American	MIA 17:20	CLT 19:29	28%	9%	0.9%	no record
F9 3700 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 18:51	CLT 21:09	29%	11%	1.6%	92%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON