Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


MQ 4085 Envoy	MIA 10:49	CMH 13:33	18%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3616 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 20:02	CMH 22:47	23%	6%	0.9%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522	5h 48m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750	6h 28m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468	3h 01m Detroit	DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic	7h 24m	98%	89%
American Details →	MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004	1h 55m Charlotte	CLT 10:30 → CMH 11:59AA 2180	5h 35m	98%	87%
American Details →	MIA 06:00 → DCA 08:41AA 491	1h 35m Washington	DCA 10:16 → CMH 11:50AA 4700 · flown by Republic	5h 50m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 14:21 → CMH 16:03DL 2892	5h 23m	94%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786	7h 01m	98%	85%
American Details →	MIA 08:47 → JFK 11:48AA 2341	2h 56m New York	JFK 14:44 → CMH 16:45AA 4767 · flown by Republic	7h 58m	100%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297	49m Charlotte	CLT 16:37 → CMH 18:10AA 1120	4h 40m	71%	56%
United Details →	MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106	52m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic	6h 14m	62%	55%
Delta Details →	MIA 15:29 → LGA 18:45DL 1538	1h 10m New York	LGA 19:55 → CMH 22:03DL 5681 · flown by Republic	6h 34m	74%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON