Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 3846 at 08:53 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3846 MIA 08:53 → CVG 11:44 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3472 MIA 18:29 → CVG 21:10 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3846 Envoy	MIA 08:53	CVG 11:44	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 4115 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 19:45	CVG 22:35	21%	5%	0.9%	80%
AA 3472 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 18:29	CVG 21:10	28%	6%	0.9%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON