Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 491 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 491 MIA 06:00 → DCA 08:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 667 MIA 18:25 → DCA 20:59 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 491 American Flight history →	MIA 06:00	DCA 08:41	7%	3%	0.9%	93%
AA 2848 American	MIA 08:12	DCA 11:00	10%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 1612 American Flight history →	MIA 09:58	DCA 12:43	15%	5%	0.9%	85%
DL 2888 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:22	DCA 14:05	21%	6%	0.7%	70%
AA 861 American	MIA 14:02	DCA 16:53	22%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 1595 American	MIA 12:06	DCA 14:51	23%	11%	0.8%	no record
AA 3034 American Flight history →	MIA 15:28	DCA 18:13	25%	12%	0.9%	58%
AA 2897 American Flight history →	MIA 20:30	DCA 23:09	27%	12%	1.4%	74%
AA 2648 American Flight history →	MIA 19:05	DCA 21:48	30%	14%	1.0%	63%
AA 667 American Flight history →	MIA 18:25	DCA 20:59	36%	14%	1.1%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON